| 2009-10 Season Preview: New Jersey Nets Authored by Andrew Perna - September 28, 2009 - 12:26 pm
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2008-09 FIC Ranking: 22nd, -6.6 per game
Key Additions: Courtney Lee
Key Subtractions: Vince Carter, Ryan Anderson
Key Rookies: Terrence Williams
Probable Starters: Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, Bobby Simmons, Yi Jianlian, Brook Lopez
Point Guard: There are a lot of doubts about the New Jersey Nets entering the 2009-10 season, but they do have one of the game’s best scorers Devin Harris. The former Maverick, who the Nets insisted on getting in return for Jason Kidd in their blockbuster trade with Dallas roughly 19 months ago, enjoyed a breakout campaign last year, averaging career-highs across the board -- 21.3 points, 6.9 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 1.7 steals in 69 games.
New Jersey was 4-9 in the 13 games that Harris missed, a winning percentage (.307) lower than their overall season mark (.414). He had 7.4 Win Shares last year, tied with Vince Carter for the most on the team, a percentage that represents nearly a quarter of the wins the Nets recorded. Harris also assisted on 34.4% of New Jersey’s baskets while on the floor, a very good number for a point guard on a below-average offensive team.
He’s just a touch older than the league’s top point guards (Chris Paul and Deron Williams), but is in the conversation with Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo and Jameer Nelson in that next tier. Harris is not as strong as Williams and isn’t a pure point guard like Paul. If he could become a more reliable three-point shooter while adding a few pounds to his frame, he’ll get closer to his contemporaries.
If the Nets want to be competitive this season, they’ll need Harris to be healthy. He gives his full effort anytime he’s on the floor, but doing so could actually be detrimental to the team if he keeps getting banged up. New Jersey will need more than the 69 games he appeared in last season. Keyon Dooling is a solid player, but there is a huge drop-off from Devin to Keyon. In addition, Rafer Alston, who would have been a very strong reserve, wants to be dealt. If the Nets are smart, they’ll ask for a guard in return. Unfortunately, Alston hasn’t put them in the best position to bargain.
Swingmen: If Vince Carter was still in New Jersey, the Nets would have had the talent to be strong contender for one of the East’s last few postseason berths. Instead, president Rod Thorn swung deal on the afternoon of the draft that sent Carter to Orlando for a package that New Jersey fans found unpleasantly underwhelming.
There is no hiding the fact that the swap gives the Nets a tremendous amount of cap relief, something Thorn has trumpeted often. The Nets currently have $29.1 million and $19.7 million tied up in salary over the next two years, respectively, and that number could decrease if they decline team options or qualifying offers for specific players.
The cap room is great, but in a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately business, the presence of disappointing veterans (Bobby Simmons) and young guns (Courtney Lee and rookie Terrence Williams) on the wing could make for a long season. Lee played important minutes on a Magic team that won the Eastern Conference Championship, but I don’t see him as a starter yet. He’s skilled offensively, but needs to make improvements in his ball-handling and is best suited as the four option.
Williams is one of the most versatile players in his draft class, but we’ve yet to see what he is capable of at the professional level. Some have mentioned him as a perfect candidate for a point forward role in New Jersey, but using him in that capacity would take the ball out of the hands of Harris, something coach Lawrence Frank certainly doesn’t want to do.
New Jersey has a number of solid veteran options at the position, including Simmons, Jarvis Hayes, Eduardo Najera and Trenton Hassell. Najera is a nice player to have because he’ll leave his blood, sweat and tears on the floor, but there is no reason for Thorn to keep all of these similar players on the roster. They could package one or two of the aforementioned quartet in a trade involving Alston, but they are unlikely to part with the expiring deals of Hassell and Hayes.
Frontcourt: The Nets could have a promising frontcourt if Yi Jianlian is as improved as the team claims he is heading into the 2009-10 campaign. The seven-footer is entering just his third NBA season and he’ll be just 22 when the season begins, but expectations have placed a cloud over Yi’s head. No one can deny his quickness and impressive jumper, but he’ll need to become a more traditional big man and pose more of a threat on defense if New Jersey is going to pair him with Brook Lopez to form one of league’s better interior tandems.
With that said, the Nets will be strong in the paint no matter how Yi plays this season because of how good Lopez can be. His numbers were exemplary for a rookie, 13 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.8 blocks, especially at a position in which the learning curve is greater than the four others spots on the floor. Spend a little time with him, or his brother Robin, and you’ll wonder whether he’s a character from either a cartoon or a Steven Spielberg movie, but there is no doubt that he has the potential to be a star in New Jersey.
He was better around the basket in his rookie season than many thought he would be and he’s already one of the NBA’s best rebounders. Lopez has the skills and size to beat more than just one opposing player to a ball off the glass. Combine that with Yi’s below average rebounding prowess, and there could be a rebounding title in his future. He grabbed 10.6% of the offensive rebounds he was on the floor for last year, good enough for ninth in the league. If he can improve his footwork, mainly to avoid fouls, he’ll have a chance to be Dwight Howard’s perennial All-Star backup.
There isn’t much behind Yi and Lopez, with Josh Boone, Tony Battie and Sean Williams picking up the time that New Jersey’s starting duo leaves behind. Williams was once thought of as a future shotblocking star in the NBA, but has struggled for a variety of seasons (both on and off the court). He’ll get on the occasional Sportscenter highlight with a great block, but his baggage and lack of an offensive game have him firmly planted on the bench. His net production per 100 possessions was -2.7 in 2008-09; worse than only Hassell in terms of New Jersey’s rotation players. Like it is at point guard, the drop off from starter to reserve is vast.
Forecast: The Nets have a budding tandem in Harris and Lopez, but more is needed in order to make a strong push towards the postseason. They’ll be competitive, if only because of their two best players, but another trip to the lottery appears likely. A rival general manager shared that assessment with me.
“[They are] probably a lottery even with a very talented point guard in Harris. But the future bodes well for the Nets with Harris, a terrific young center in Lopez and a nucleus player like Lee. They also have two first round picks in June’s draft and cap space in the future for their move to Brooklyn. It’s not going to happen this season or probably even next, but they are a team of the future with an All-Star in Harris and a future All-Star in Lopez,” the GM said.
They’ll likely finish with approximately 34 wins for the third straight season, with the potential for a few more (if Lee/Williams grow) or a few less (if either Harris or Lopez misses an extended period of time).
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7.
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